Coastal rain event and probable East Coast Low 20 to 23 April 2015


The system that produced the inland New South Wales and Victoria rain event of 17 and 18 April will continue to track east and cross the coast on Sunday. Weather models vary and it is still difficult to determine what will occur. However, it appears that a deep and wet south east air stream will develop Sunday and Monday and models are hinting of the development of an east coast low. The exact position is hard to determine at this early stage.

Models suggest the east coast low forming off the New South Wales mid north coast Monday then tracking south to be east of Sydney Tuesday and Wednesday before weakening in intensity.

The GFS rain model attached is suggesting some heavy falls on the New South Wales Mid North Coast during this period. The Bureau of Meteorology model is hinting at possible falls of upwards of 200 mm during this period for the New South Wales mid north coast say Port Macquarie.

The problem with this rain model for Sydney is that it currently varies from the Bureau of Meteorology model. In this regard the Bureau of Meteorology model is suggesting rainfall upwards of 150 mm for Sydney during the period.

The Bureau of Meteorology model "Water and the Land" is hinting at heavy falls anywhere south of Port Macquarie all the way to the Victorian State Border but mainly coastal in nature during this period.

The exact location of who gets the heavy rain is determined by where the east coast low forms. Either way, a wet and windy week appears to be in store for the New South Wales east coast with the potential for a significant rain event.