Tropical Cyclone Carlos Darwin area – February 2011

Best start a thread for our pending system.

The low has ramped up over the past 10 hours to date 6pm 15Feb 2010).  There have been regular STW's running every hour or so with the convection tightening up to the NW of Darwin.  Gusts to 45kts regularly now and TC Warning and Watch are current.  The warning covers Darwin.  There is a good LLCC to the NW of Darwin and circulation by sat images is very good.  JTWC gives the system a good change of being a significant cyclone.  So far ratings of CAT1 are on the cards, but as we are aware the longer it stays in the Timor Sea the better its chance of strengthening.

Conditions in the past four hours to 6pm have been squally with moderate rain non-stop.  These squally rain periods arrived early this morning.  There are a few roads around Darwin's northern suburbs that have become flooded already.  Central pressure of the low has dropped quite quickly in this period, from 1007, 1005, 1002 and currently 1000hpa.

I'll be out and about trying to get some footage or stills - if I can keep out of the rain.

James Reynolds from Hong Kong (www.typhoonfury.com) is here with me.  It was his intention to nab some lightning images with me during his stay but it seems a pending cyclone might well suit him better!

A few graphics from the past hours.

Impressive Doppler from this afternoon

JTWC text:

WTXS22 PGTW 150730
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 12.7S 130.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 150600Z INDI-
CATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 130.7E.  THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
130.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 20 NM SOUTH
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR DARWIN. DARWIN DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS INTENSE CONVECTION BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A
DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF THE LLCC OVER WATER. DARWIN IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE NEAR 1002 MB AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 KNOTS GUSTING
TO OVER 40 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS DRIFTING NORTHWEST TOWARDS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY ONCE OVER
WATER. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 ...

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