A significant heatwave is forecast to envelop southern inland Australia over coming days from the 5 to the 8 December 2015. A feature of this heatwave is that it is unlikely to reach coastal New South Wales or Victoria and hence it is likely to remain an event for inland areas.
The heatwave will cross through South Australia during Saturday to Monday, then into northern Victoria and western New South Wales but further east and south, maximum temperatures are forecast to moderate.
For New South Wales, there are areas along the coast such as the South Coast that are unlikely to reach 30C at any time during this period.
Some exceptionally high temperatures are forecast for inland areas of South Australia by Sunday including a forecast of 45C for Cooba Pedy and Tarcoola. Many inland centres of South Australia are forecast to reach 40C or higher for 2 or possibly 3 consecutive days.
Similar conditions are forecast for North West Victoria and western New South Wales during this period.
To provide some idea of the strength of this heatwave, the following maximum forecast temperatures are being made:-
Adelaide – Sat 39C, Sun 40C, Mon 38C.
Ceduna – Sat 42C, Sun 41C, Mon 33C.
Coober Pedy – Sat 42C, Sun 45C, Mon 38C.
Keith – Sat 39C, Sun 39C, Mon 39C.
Leigh Creek – Sat 40C, Sun 43C, Mon 39C.
Tarcoola Sat – 43C, Sun 45C, Mon 39C.
Woomera Sat – 40C, Sun 44C, Mon 39C.
This shows that Sunday will see significant heat building across inland areas of South Australia.
A feature for Adelaide is the forecast for overnight minimums of 26C for Sunday and Monday night making for two uncomfortable warm nights should that occur.
Bendigo – Sat 36C, Sun 37C, Mon 36C, Tue 33C.
Echuca – Sat 37C, Sun 39C, Mon 38C, Tue 35C.
Horsham – Sat 39C, Sun 38C, Mon 38C, Tue 33C.
Mildura – Sat 40C, Sun 42C, Mon 42C, Tue 37C.
Ouyen – Sat 39C, Sun 41C, Mon 41C, Tue 36C.
For Victoria, the city of Bendigo appears to be the southernmost limit where the heatwave takes hold. Maximum temperatures moderate for places further south and south east. Hence the significant heat should remain across the North West and Wimmera regions.
New South Wales
Balranald – Sat 38C, Sun 40C, Mon 39C, Tue 36C.
Broken Hill – Sat 39C, Sun 41C, Mon 41C, Tue 36C.
Finley – Sat 36C, Sun 38C, Mon 36C, Tue 32C.
Tibooburra – Sat 41C, Sun 42C, Mon 43C, Tue 37C.
Penrith (Western Sydney) – Sat 31C, Sun 32C, Mon 28C, Tue 32C.
For New South Wales, places like Finley appear to be at the eastern edge of the area worst affected by the heat. For places further east such as Albury, only one day is expected to reach 37C being Sunday. Penrith is added to show that the heat will not reach Sydney.
However places across the western interior are expected to swelter in at least 3 days of 40C temperatures or higher.
The attached plots from the Bureau of Meteorology Access Models show the following:-
1 – The heat forecast to impact the western inland of New South Wales for 2 pm Monday afternoon.
2 – The significant heat forecast to impact South Australia for 2 pm Sunday afternoon. In this model, it is suggested that portions of the state North West of Adelaide are forecast to reach 44C to 46C for Sunday afternoon.
3 – Australia showing the heat across South Australia for 2 pm Sunday afternoon which is clearly evident when compared to the rest of Australia. It is suggested that parts of South Australia will be the hottest locations found anywhere in the country at this time.