Models have been in agreement for some time about the formation of a strong tropical cyclone in Fiji. And although the prediction of intensity cannot be taken seriously a week out the tropical cyclone is expected to form into a large tropical cyclone near Fiji and Vanuatu over the next 24 hour or so. Fiji is below average for the amount of tropical cyclones this season thus far. A huge amount of energy may be in place for the development of a specifically large tropical cyclone and will be watched by authorities.
Models are consistent in placing an another East coast low this time off the NSW north Coast by mid week. Some heavy falls are likely as the system develops and intensifies. Moisture has already been fed into Eastern NSW as a result of the NE airstream over the past several days since the previous east coast low.
This is quite impressive given the past several months were relatively dry across much of Northern and Eastern Australia. The system may last until the end of the week.
Initially, a cold pool located over Victoria is anticipated to be situated over eastern NSW by Monday evening. Coupled with the I feed of moisture, rain should increase with some respectable falls overnight until Tuesday.
The heaviest rainfall should be on the Mid North Coast of NSW with falls up to or exceeding 100mm by Wednesday morning as the low intensifies and becomes situated nearer the coastline. More rain will persist into the week but much depends on the relative position of the low pressure system.
Update 26th August 2014
A spectacular storm hit Sydney this afternoon during rush hour with heavy rain, lightning and a severe thunderstorm warning which has expired. More warnings were issued for the Central Coast and Lake Macquarie region this evening for heavy rain. A spectacular shelf cloud was observed across the Eastern Suburbs prior to the storm approaching. Rainfall totals reflect the storms most intense cores passing through the southern and eastern suburbs.