Floods caused by heavy rains Queendland 22nd February 2014

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Queensland_weekly_rainfall_21st_February_2014-580x566
Queensland weekly rainfall 21st February 2014

Queensland weekly rainfall 21st February 2014

Recent heavy rainfall has cause flooding in the region Longreach – one of the regions reporting one of the worst droughts on record. Some regions have reported in between 100 to 200mm of rain with some exceeding 200mm. A stagnant inland trough created the environment for widespread thunderstorm development. The lack of overall wind shear meant that the storms were slow moving or almost stationary and this assisted in the high totals.

Some regions have recorded their best rainfalls since 2009. The landscape has transformed from drought stricken and dusty to widespread and rising flood waters typical of the channel country. The recent rainfall has come as a great relief and a boost to desperate farmers. More storms are forecast for the coming days as the trough moves further inland. A deep low over the Gulf of Carpentaria may drift into the Northern Territory with a trough over western Queensland.

Widespread Falls of Rain Eastern Thunderstorms NSW 19th February 2014

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Rain event NW Slopes Hunter Valley
Rain event NW Slopes Hunter Valley

Rain event NW Slopes Hunter Valley

It seems rain is still likely to occur to provide top up rain from the previous rainfall from last Sunday. There is the chance of localised heavier rain with thunderstorms but the likelihood of very heavy rain along substantial boundaries are not favoured on both models. The GFS has still sided with heavy rainfall in the Hunter Valley and North West Slopes but not supported by the Bureau models.

Update:

So what eventuated from this event – 50mm fell at Gosford during the heavy rain and storms as well as a heavy fall in Nobbys Heads.

NSW weekly rainfall 21st February 2014

NSW weekly rainfall 21st February 2014

Here is the radar from about 3pm – a dense active area of lightning near Gosford this afternoon

Rain Storms Radar Eastern NSW Gosford deluge 19th February 2014

Rain Storms Radar Eastern NSW Gosford deluge 19th February 2014

NSW Satellite Visible Image 19th February 2014

NSW Satellite Visible Image 19th February 2014

Heavy Rainfall event Central Coast Lower Hunter 19th February 2014

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Surface Lifted Index 19th February 2014
Hunter Valley Rainfall 19th February 2014

Hunter Valley Rainfall 19th February 2014

Rain Event Central Coast 19th February 2014

Rain Event Central Coast 19th February 2014

Hunter Valley Sounding 5pm 19th February 2014

Hunter Valley Sounding 5pm 19th February 2014

Update: The very heavy rainfall anticipated is not being consistently predicted on the current models for today. It seems that with ample moisture, rain totals of up to 10-15mm of rain is likely in some areas although GFS still has heavier rainfall possible in the Hunter Valley.

A localised very heavy rainfall event seems now more and more likely to occur from just north of Sydney Central Coast to the lower Hunter Valley. Both models GFS and the Bureau Access R models are placing high precipitation of up to at least 80mm in this region.

The storms may develop rapidly in the afternoon as very moist tropical air combines with surface heating in a possible region of convergence creating instability. Early in the afternoon, the rain event may be northwest of this region in a narrow band in the North West Slopes. The system then centres on the lower and southern Hunter Valley regions about early evening and after sunset. Given there has been at least some rain in these areas on Sunday, any further rain may cause localised flash flooding.

Surface Lifted Index 19th February 2014

Surface Lifted Index 19th February 2014