Monthly Archives: August 2015

Tropical Storm Erika strikes Hispaniola Island August 28 2015

Published by:

WorldviewErika

Erika1

Erika2

The MODIS Worldview image acquired from NASA and dated 28/8/2015 with urban overlays is showing the islands of Puerto Rico (Small island to the east) and Hispaniola (Larger island to the west) comprising the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

A small but deadly tropical storm named Tropical Storm Erika has struck the Dominican Republic and Haiti over the past day with heavy rain which has created mudslides and flooding.

The satellite photo is showing the cloud mass forming Tropical Storm Erika with strong convection and cumulonimbus clouds being highly visible as the storm approached the island from the east.

Torrential rainfall and winds to 85 km/h has been a feature leaving up to 200,000 residents on Puerto Rico without power. According to news sources:-

There are currently 31 missing in the Dominican Republic.
Up to 20 fatalities.
Up to 80% of the population without power.
Heavy rainfall in excess of 350 mm.

The storm is being tracked by CIMSS but it is not clear if the storm will survive the mountains and while a forecast track to the north west is generated on the CIMSS model (Acquired 29/8/15), its movement is not clear. Should the storm survive intact, it may track north west towards Florida or the west coast of the state following landfall across Cuba. If not, the storm could break apart and no longer be a threat.

Latest radar images is showing the storm breaking apart although some convection is still identified to the south of the island. It is too early to calculate what the storm will do next.

Notwithstanding this and despite not being a hurricane, the storm has inflicted a significant loss across the Dominican Republic over recent hours.

Three hurricanes near Hawaii and Mexico August 29 2015

Published by:

ThreeHurricanes

Jimena1

Jimena2

Ignacio1

Ignacio2

HurricaneKilo1

HurricaneKilo2

With the demise of Typhoons Atsani and Goni across the north west Pacific Ocean over recent days, attention now focuses on three named storms in waters within the vicinity of Hawaii and Mexico, one of which appears to be a threat to Hawaii.

All three storms are new hurricanes and all three are within favourable environments that will support such storms. From east to west, the named storms or hurricanes are:-

1 - Hurricane Jimena.
2 - Hurricane Ignacio.
3 - Hurricane Kilo.

The spectacular MODIS Worldview showing the waters surrounding Hawaii and Mexico shows all three storms aligned (Image acquired from NASA 29/8/15 with overlays). A brief discussion of each hurricane is provided.

1 - Hurricane Jimena

The easternmost hurricane is a powerful Category 3 storm sustaining winds of 105 knots (Approximately 194 km/h) but is expected to intensify to a Category 4 storm and possibly approach a Category 5 storm given its current environment. The storm is expected to sustain winds of 135 knots (Approximately 250 km/h) in coming days partly due to its passage over waters of 30C and low shear.

The storm has a well defined eye and is expected to be the fourth major storm of the season in this part of the Pacific Ocean. Forecast models indicate slow decay after 48 hours. The storm should not threaten any land or population centre and hence its entire life span should be over open ocean.

At the time of writing, the storm is located 12.4 degrees north and 123.7 degrees west and should track west before turning more north west.

2 - Hurricane Ignacio

The hurricane centre to the MODIS Worldview image currently sustains winds at the core of approximately 80 knots (Approximately 148 km/h). The storm has been slow to develop and it is unclear why.

The storm is forecast to sustain winds of 90 knots (Approximately 167 km/h) within 24 hours and should reach a Category 2 storm in coming hours.

A research plane will be flying into the storm in coming hours to verify the strength of the storm and to ascertain what is occurring. The storm is expected to start to weaken after 48 hours.

At the time of writing, the storm is located 15 degrees north and 144.9 degrees west and should track north west which would take it close to Hawaii. This storm is the storm to watch given its proximity to the Hawaiian Islands.

3 - Hurricane Kilo

The storm has been slow to develop and is well to the west south west of Hawaii and currently not a threat to any population centre.

Winds at the centre are calculated at 60 to 65 knots (Approximately 111 to 120 km/h) which is effectively a hurricane. Given that an eye has just formed it is determined that this is a newly born hurricane. The storm will be passing over waters of 30 degrees and is expected to strengthen to a Category 2 storm within three days sustaining winds in excess of 90 knots (Approximately 167 km/h).

Forecast models suggest further strengthening out to 120 hours with winds of 100 knots (Approximately 185 km/h).

At the time of writing, the storm is located 17.8 degrees north and 173.8 degrees west and should track west before turning more north west.

The various CIMSS models for each storm is attached all of which are acquired on the 29 August 2015 from CIMSS.

This is now a very busy time for the National Weather Service regarding the formation of new hurricanes at the same time. It will be interesting to see what occurs with Hurricane Ignacio over coming days. Given that a research plane will be flying into the storm, this does suggest some level of concern is being raised given its proximity to Hawaii and expected movement close to the islands.

Typhoon Goni makes landfall Kyushu Japan August 26 2015

Published by:

GoniinJapanarea

Typhoon Goni ended its life after crossing the west coast of Kyushu (Japan). The storm made landfall over Arao City which is part of a complex of cities which includes Nagasaki.

The storm ended its life after impacting three countries across South East Asia and causing various disruption to many centres. The storm made landfall as a Category Three storm and broke apart although it did continue as a rain depression north into the Sea of Japan.

Its impact across Kumamoto Prefecture was considerable which included the loss of power to at least 425,000 homes.

When reviewed, its impact according to media reports is considerable as follows:-

Philippines

1 - Destruction of 1,000 homes.
2 - Evacuation of 12,000 residents.
3 - Heavy rain.

Taiwan

1 - Heavy rain with the highest totals being 266 mm (Accumulated totals) at TAI PING SHAN 1 (Datong Township) in Yilan County with the second highest total being 223.5 mm at Xiulin Township in Hualien County and third highest total of 218 mm in the Pingxi District (New Taipei City).

2 - Disruption to the clean up effort following Typhoon Soudelor.

Japan

1 - Numerous injuries.
2 - Disruption to train and air services.
3 - Flooding and swollen rivers.
4 - Loss of power on Okinawa Island.
5 - Peak wind gusts reaching 180 km/h.

In conclusion, this was a very significant storm given its unusual path, erratic behaviour and impact across three countries.

The Worldview Satellite Image acquired from NASA on the 24 August is showing the storm to the south of Japan but impacting the southern outer islands of the country called Okinawa. The storm is over the Okinawa Shoto and Amami Shoto Islands (From north east to south west - O Shima, Tukuno Shima, Okinoerabu Jima, Okinawa Jima and Kumi Jima). A number of urban centres are affected with the urban centres overlayed across the image.

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