After a warm autumn day, storms developed on the Southern Tablelands once again. A warning was issued for a cell though it seemed to be outflow dominant and it became rather disorganised. However, as the complex moved into the western Sydney region, the storm intensified on radar into a likely supercell about 8pm with golf ball sized hailstones observed. Another cell developed on the forward flank but there was a distinct and sudden break along the northern flank. Then rain suddenly began to fall from the new developing cell. A cell continued into the Mt Yengo National Park with warnings in the Wollombi region as a supercell with couplet once again passed through the region. Radar still to be posted on this interesting storm event!
A cold pool is expected drift over the Newcastle to Central Coast region this evening resulting in further rainfall across the region. Falls of up to 50mm are expected from the development according to the latest model. The cold pool which has assisted in producing some heavy falls of rain across many parts of NSW and also Queensland will eject into the Tasman about midnight with rain easing and clearing off the coast. Localised flooding could not be ruled out given the saturated falls from several days of rainfall earlier this week
It seems very probable now that a major rain event is expected to impact the eastern states - particularly Queensland and NE NSW as well as to a certain extend other parts of eastern NSW. Rainfall totals in excess of 150mm can be expected in Queensland and possibly in parts of NE NSW over the next several days. Widespread falls 25 to 50mm in the previously drought affected areas are anticipated but probably not as likely in regions where it is most needed as a follow up. Northeast Victoria and northern Tasmania can also expect some some rain with lower totals generally.