Tropical Cyclone Atu – RSMC Nadi TCWC

Hi everyone. A new tropical depression advisory from, and courtesy of, RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre as at yesterday (18/02/2011). With it having moderately favourable conditions (sitting near a surface trough and moderate shear,along with SST's around 30 degrees C.), there is a high chance of developing into a TC. Currently slow moving SSE and predicted to stay on this track, but as we all know, could turn any direction but will usually swing more towards the west. Former TC Yasi developed in approximately the same co-ordinates.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 18/1946 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 997 HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 169.6E
AT 181800 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.  DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.  

 
ORGANISATION IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND LLCC. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL
VARIATION MAKING LLCC CLOUD FILLED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO
500HPA. SST AROUND 30 DEGREE CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY A WEAK
NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN REGIME. MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTH OF SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND RECEDE TO THE WEST AS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH.
DVORAK ASSESMENT BASED ON 0.40 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5,
MET=2.5 PT=2.5 FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A SSE TRACK. POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 190600 UTC 16.3S 169.6E MOV S AT 04 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 191800 UTC 17.0S 169.7E MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC 17.5S 170.0E MOV SSE AT 03 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 201800 UTC 18.1S 170.4E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 11F WILL BE ISSUED AT
AROUND 190200 UTC OR EARLIER.

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