Storms for eastern NSW 29th November 2012

Latest models again pointy to the potential of storms including some that may go severe later today. It would be great if the storms can tap into the surface moisture. Any storms that reach high up in the atmosphere will  be the ones to watch. This is a similar environment tot yesterday. However, temperatures have warmed somewhat to -8C at 500hPa. a marginal setup but I suspect very electrically active storms if they can form in a deep atmosphere.



  • There was a significant storm SW of Grafton yesterday afternoon (29 Nov). Seems to have been a right mover supercell, and even resulted in a comment from Harald Richter:

    “A pretty (borderline) supercell is heading NE towards Grafton NSW at present.
    The storm lives on the backside of a midlevel trough that is poking into SE QLD.

    The storm has a good Weak Echo Region (WER) capped by what looks like
    a compact hail core with reflectivities reaching 68 dBZ. Most remarkably,
    the storm has a very pronounced midlevel forward flank notch (V-shaped) downstream from
    the updraft (downstream today in that area means NNW).”

    128km Radar Loop for Grafton, 02:00 29/11/2012 to 08:00 29/11/2012 UTC

  • The storm resulted in over 1000 lightning strikes in the hour, but sure collapsed quickly coming off the range