Storm Potential for central NSW 29th November 2011

Update: Michael Thompson posted this image of a explosive dryline supercell from the 29th November 2011 event:

Given the strong instability and generally decent turning profile, there is the likelihood of severe storms over central NSW this afternoon and evening. CAPE values show the atmosphere is more than sufficient for hailstorms with very warm humid air and sufficient cool temperatures aloft. I would not be surprised if there are a few supercells today if storms can remain isolated. Given the capping particularly to the west, isolated storms are a decent chance.

I guess we shall see what happens.

By the way, I would again like to mention that the GFS is being contaminated by data and over estimating moisture in the Riverina - I would only anticipate higher based storms in this region.


Jimmy Deguara