Re: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms 5 – 7 October 2010

I think there is a chance of some nice storms today over the norther rivers. The Brisbane sounding this morning looks pretty good besides a horrible inversion around 700 mbar. The temp around 600 mbar is set to cool during the day which should help alot. SE change is moving up the coast in the afternoon much may provide a focus for storm development. Shear is a bit on the weak side but should be enough for storm organisation if things come together. I would really like to see some on the inland stations (Grafton, Casino) hitting say 28/18 in the afternoon for a good shot at severe storms. That will give say 1500-1800 j/kg of sbCAPE. Any more is a bonus. The dew point at Grafton has just drop a few degrees in the last hour which might suggest that the coastal moisture is a bit shallow. Casino is holding strong though. A couple of weak echoes showing up now. Will be interesting to see what this afternoon holds.

Comments

comments

s2Member®