Re: Eastern NSW Severe storms / supercells 16-17 March 2011

Pintang,

I know I have said this another time but definitely this time do not feel bad about your decision. In hindsight it is easy to suggest otherwise!

To tell you the truth, most people would not have taken the day off to chase. You guessed it the southerly was the negative feature - imagine spending a tank of fuel on outflow dominant crap. Had the target been further north, I would not have even chased. For you that distance suggested a bust would have been hurtful. The storm structures really surprised me particularly the inflow etc. There was nothing in the models that suggested to me the type of cells that occurred was to occur.

And then the day after with Ben - why would someone chase with a model suggesting 800 CAPE - I know adjusted values would have suggested otherwise. (I could have chased on this day as well but I had work to do and the risk was there as well). Even with modest instability you could have storms tracking boundaries which I suspect was occuring with the one tracking the coast.

Interesting couple of days nevetheless and given the accuracy of the models these days, surprises are rare!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara 

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