Possible severe flooding for SEQ and NE NSW from 26 Dec 2010

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It has been a roller coaster of a ride with the GFS and Access runs over the last 4 days or so. But in general they keep throwing large totals up for QLD, SEQ and NE NSW.

As you may be aware a very weak bottom of the scale Cat.1 cyclone named Tasha crossed the North QLD Coast early this morning. (25/12/10) After forming it quickly lost intensity and was downgraded. But EX TC Tasha is moving rather swiftly at 40 km/h and causing a lot of flooding to many areas.

BoM reported:
Recent Events:
Widespread rainfall of 200-300mm between Cairns and Ingham in the 24 hours to
9am Saturday.  Localised heavy falls are being recorded near the coast between
Ingham and Mackay on Saturday afternoon
.
 
The latest GFS run is throwing extremely large totals of around 700 mmm for parts of SEQ. I am half expecting and hoping to see some of those totals drop with the next run.

The latest warning from BoM suggest :

Synoptic Situation: At 4:00 pm EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Tasha had weakened into a
broad rain depression between Georgetown and Charters Towers and was moving
south-southwest at around 30 kilometres per hour. A 1023 hPa high in the
southern Tasman Sea extended a firm ridge onto the Queensland east coast south
of the cyclone.

Heavy rainfall and associated flooding will continue in coastal areas between
Ingham and Gladstone tonight, extending inland to southeastern parts of the
Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders, and through eastern parts of the Central
Highlands and Coalfields district.

On Sunday this heavy rainfall is forecast to move south between Bowen and Fraser
Island on the east coast and inland through the Central Highlands and Coalfields
district.

Stay safe and alert to those who may be affected,

Col

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