Rain and storms – Southern Australia – 3 to 5 November 2021

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A dynamic weather system has settled in over southern Australia producing a significant rain event for Southern and Central Victoria. It is rare to see such events moving across Victoria and it is even rarer to see some of the heavier totals occurring throughout Melbourne City.

Wednesday 3 November 2021

During Wednesday, an intense rainband with embeded thunderstorms moved across Central Victoria which impacted Melbourne City. Some of the heaviest falls that occurred for the 24 hours to 9 am 4/11/2021 were:-

St Arnold  - 87 mm.

Melbourne’s north and east - 24 to 55 mm.

Inglewood - 52 mm.

Melbourne City scored 45 to 46 mm with a weather station at Yarra River Chandler Hwy NE of the CBD recording 55 mm which is the second highest total in the state for the day.

Other strong totals included Navarre 48 mm, Stoney Creek 40 mm and Bendigo 38 mm.

In addition to this, thunderstorms again featured in some areas including:-

Charlton - Recording 22 mm including 14 mm of rainfall between 1.30 pm and 2 pm.

Hopetoun - Recording 16.6 mm between 1.30 pm and 2.30 pm.

Walpeup - Recording 10.2 mm between 12.30 pm and 12.37 pm and another 11.6 mm from 12.37 pm and 12.43 pm (Almost 2 mm per minute) (Total 27.4 mm from the same storm).

While rainfall totals have generally been in line with the models for many areas, the north east received much lighter totals and well below model forecasts such as 7 mm at Wangaratta and 15.4 mm at Albury Airport weather station.

In New South Wales some strong totals of up to 49 mm occurred at Mt Jack, 45 mm at White Cliffs and 44 mm at White Cliffs (Laurel Vale), all along the Paroo River in the North West of the state. An isolated fall of 31 mm also fell at Pooncarie in the south west of the state.

A small area centred on the western side of the Australian Capital Territory received between 25 and 41 mm and a fall of 43 mm fell at Batlow.

It is rare to see the heavier totals occurring in north west New South Wales.

Thursday 4 November 2021

Light to moderate rain passed over eastern New South Wales that reached Sydney. Rainfall totals were slightly heavier than expected across Western Sydney with falls reaching 43 mm at Horsley Park. The heaviest totals were:-

Stone Quarry - 88 mm

ACT PC SI - 62 mm.

Parkers Gap (East of Queanbeyan) - 61 mm.

Captain Flat - 51 mm

Nimmitable - 50 mm.

Some of the figures are heavier than expected given that the cloud mass stalled over Eastern New South Wales.

For western Sydney, rainfall was steady but heavier across the south western Suburbs.

After 9 am, rainfall eased considerably.

This event is coming ahead of the next burst of showers and storms expected across Saturday and Sunday over southern areas.

 

 

 

Significant weather event – Rain and Storms 3 – 8 November 2021 for NSW / VIC

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As identified in a previous post, a significant weather event is expected to unfold across inland New South Wales, eastern South Australia and most of Victoria in coming days.

Many of the regions affected by the recent burst of storms will again be affected by this event that may create additional issues as the cleanup progresses.

A band of rain is expected to Cross southern Australia during Wednesday and into Thursday however, it is noted that various models are showing that event as having less impact to coastal locations along the New South Wales coastline.

The heaviest rain as seen on the weekly "Water and the Land" plot which is an accumulative 7 day plot for the period 2 to the 9 November is showing the highest rainfall occurring across most of the inland regions of New South Wales with elevated rainfall along the western slopes of the Great Dividing Range. Lighter accumulative totals are shown for coastal New South Wales.

A similar forecast was made for a recent event and rainfall totals that fell were lighter than expected thus it will be interesting to see if this event eventuates as to what is being shown on the various plots.

It is also noted that a separate event is forecast for the same period for parts of the arid interior being north west South Australia, eastern central Western Australia and south west Northern Territory.

Should this eventuate, it would be widespread in area and duration occurring over several days. Some of this rain is expected to fall from thunderstorms especially across western New South Wales. This event should be interesting as it unfolds and will be monitored over coming days.

The Himawari satellite photo is showing the cloud mass that is expected to cross southern Australia during Wednesday with the first rain band. That cloud is still over South Australia at the time although it will move east overnight and enter Victoria and Western New South Wales before daybreak Wednesday morning.

 

Storms SE South Australia and Southern Victoria 28 – 29 October 2021

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During Thursday and Friday 28 and 29 October 2021, another burst of rain and storms crossed south east South Australia and parts of South West Victoria.

Information of these storms are somewhat limited as not all of these passed over official weather stations. It appears that some of these storms are significant enough to warrant mention and the following noteworthy events have been identified from local weather stations.

1 - Gawler - A storm dropped 11.8 mm of rain between 10 am and 10.09 am which is over 1 mm per minute. The weather station did not record any significant wind during the event.

2 - Nurioopta - A thunderstorm produced a maximum wind gust of 69 km/h between 10.25 am and 10.30.

3 - Mt Crawford - The weather station identifies 10.2 mm of rain falling from a thunderstorm between 10.11 am and 10.30 am with a peak wind gust of 61 km/h.

Online videos have emerged of a hailstorm passing over Uleybury producing hail of at least 2 cm to 4.5 cm in size although it appears to be short lived.

There are other videos showing hail falling across Adelaide suburbs.

There is also video identifying another hailstorm passing over Harrow (North West of Hamilton) in Western Victoria that appears to have produced hail of at least 2 cm in size.

Other storms impacted western and southern Victoria that damaged powerline infrastructure causing significant power loss in many areas including Ballarat, Bendigo, Kyneton, Point Lonsdale and Skipton.

The far south west portion of Victoria received between 50 and 100 of rain from this event with lighter totals elsewhere.

The weather system largely missed northern Victoria and appears to have been confined to the south west and southern areas of the state.

Forecasts were made of storms to impact much of the inland area of south west New South Wales and the Sydney region however this generally never eventuated.

Another weather system 2 - 4 November 2021

Another weather system is forecast for the period Tuesday to Thursday 2 to 4 November 2021 which is expected to impact many of the areas most affected by the recent storm events.

This system is also expected to produce rain and storm activity across much of inland New South Wales but it is not expected to have a significant impact to the coast and North East New South Wales at this stage.

Rainfall models for this event vary widely but accumulative totals are suggested to reach 25 to 50 mm across large areas of the inland and southern areas including much of Victoria in coming days. For many areas, this will be the second major weather event within the space of one week.

The METEYE rainfall plots for Wednesday and Thursday shows that the heaviest and greatest rainfall chances are expected to occur across much of Victoria and later into southern and Central areas of New South Wales.

With this system following so close to the last system, this would have potential to create further havoc in areas still recovering from last weeks storms.

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