Ok this is worthy of discussion and not the type of news we wanted for the bushfires!. Yes we have to be very careful this far off with models chopping and changing but take a look at the predicted temperatures at 5pm on the 5th January 2020! At first my mind was centred on the inland! Then I took a look a the coast near Sydney. Am I seeing correctly with the pink shading? 48 to 49C in Sydney region.
Yes I know this is a gossip horse and it will take the intensification of the baking inland trough and timing as well as positioning for western Sydney to achieve this as a record smashing event! AGAIN approach with caution as this is way out on EC 15 Day models. But still a point in discussion.
GFS is also showing 40C temperatures at 11am for the same day! For the US counterparts - 48C - 118.4 49C - 120.2
Please note there is a dangerous fire period likely and consistent with all models between December 27th to December 31st 2019. But if this verifies this should obviously be labelled catastrophic fire danger level!
Jimmy Deguara Matthew Piper is referring to this the latest from the same model which runs 4 times a day and the same model picks up extreme temperatures.- again a reminder with all the shares that this may be hype and it is only a discussion about how and why models (perhaps it may eventuate) are picking an extreme heat event. If it verifies attacking the record set in 1939.
Jimmy Deguara The GFS has the heat wave maximised on the 4th January - and the southerly coming through on the 5th. The timing of the southerly is critical in this event being realised - I guess a worst case scenario.By the GFS model at this time frame ahead has only 11am available to indicate heating earlier in the day - 3pm to 5pm is the maximum heating period on most of these January events!
Jimmy Deguara Sadly after all these analyses, unfortunately there are little signs of significant rainfall for the Sydney region or for any west and south of Sydney areas until dreamland the 9th January 2020. That's at least another 2 weeks of drying with heat and wind increasing the fire danger levels with successive heat waves!