El Nino not expected!

Interesting news from Weatherzone news:

"The weather bureau is predicting a big change in Australia's weather forecast this summer, with an El Nino no longer expected."

"....it is the biggest turnaround in weather patterns since records began."

My belief is that whenever bush fires occurred in major number so early in spring - particularly August to September, the following months tend to rain. I note that David Croan stated this just late last week that we are in a neutral phase.

This could see some significant storm activity during November and onwards. What do others think? A similar early hot early spring occurred in 1988 when October was hot and extremely dry. I mean how long can the central parts of Australia experience above average and near record prolonged high temperatures without some compensation?

8 thoughts on “El Nino not expected!

  1. Michael Bath

    There’s been talk of heading into neutral for a while, which could result in a decent storm season though I will reserve judgement on that until it happens. It’s been a very dry period in many parts of NSW and QLD with many bushfires though nothing really major yet – suprisingly.

  2. Harley Pearman

    I am seeing talk of an average season with average rainfalls and predictions have been made for average rainfall in the Hunter Valley. I would expect variations of temperatures with some very hot days, some cool but overall a more average season for temperatures than last year. For Sydney although it is guesswork but possibly some significant thunderstorms. I have noticed a peak period of storms for the last week of November and the first week of December in many years. I suspect rainfall amounts may increase as we approach February. Possible peak summer maximum temperatures in December and early January before moderating as the summer rains occur late January and into February.

  3. Jimmy Deguara

    That is one prediction Harley – I will hold you to it! Haha… Well I hope we are nto going through a bushfire season. The farmers also need a break from the devastating floods over the past couple of summers and definitely not another drought. So it is a good news forecast!

  4. Harley Pearman

    Thank you. You tend to see a drier December but as summer builds rainfall increases by February. If there was a bushfire period for Sydney, it would probably be November and December. You will still get the normal monsoon floods across northern Australia. The BOM has suggested a wet Christmas for Darwin and a strong build up in December now. I have looked at the ENSO models and rainfall for NSW (Dec to Jan) and it shows a 50 to 55% chance of average rainfall across the south and higher chances of reaching average rainfalls across NE NSW including Sydney. Its quite promising for reasonable summer rains, especially the inland NE NSW. With a Neutral IOD returning and a neutral ENSO, its positive. Although as many farmers would testify, they only want to see the results for the summer crops.

  5. Harley Pearman

    Not sure if this works as I have not posted images on the new system. The plot from the BOM does suggest that much of northern NSW has at least a 55% chance of exceeding median rainfall while the southern part of the state has at least a 50% chance of reaching median rainfall for the November to January period. Even across Victoria, there is at least a 50% chance of median rainfall during the period. Generally no part of eastern Australia is suggested to have below or significantly below median rainfall. It generally suggests a neutral setup.

  6. Jimmy Deguara

    Harley Pearman, that is a nice map you posted in terms of probabilistic rainfall in the coming months from the Bureau. In response to your reply shown here, it seems likely that central Australia is in for some fairly widespread rainfall. You can imagine some tropical cyclones off NW Australia becoming tropical depressions over that part of the world.
    "Not sure if this works as I have not posted images on the new system. The plot from the BOM does suggest that much of northern NSW has at least a 55% chance of exceeding median rainfall while the southern part of the state has at least a 50% chance of reaching median rainfall for the November to January period. Even across Victoria, there is at least a 50% chance of median rainfall during the period. Generally no part of eastern Australia is suggested to have below or significantly below median rainfall. It generally suggests a neutral setup. "

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