Daily Archives: August 19, 2015

Typhoon Atsani reaches super typhoon status August 19 2015

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Ansaniinfrared

NASAAtsani

Typhoon Atsani has continued to intensify and according to CIMSS, the storm has now reached “Super typhoon status” sustaining powerful winds of 140 knots (Approximately 259 km/h) with peak wind gusts to 160 knots or approximately 296 km/h.

According to the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan, it is calculated that peak winds reach 63 metres per second at the core.

It appears the storm is now reaching its maximum strength as a high end Category 4 storm and based on the model attached from CIMSS (Acquired 19 August 2015), the storm may even reach Category 5 status over coming hours.

The storm is now located at 18.6 degrees north and 152.9 degrees east and tracking over waters of 30C towards the north west and approaching Japan from the south. However, assuming the latest model from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan is accurate, the storm should change course south of Japan, weaken and never make landfall.

The satellite photo of the storm from MODIS Worldview (Acquired from NASA 19 August 2015) with overlays is showing the storm as a spiral shape with dense thunderstorm bands. The eye is visible especially in the infra red view and dense cumulonimbus clouds surround the eye of the typhoon.

Assuming the storm remains out to sea during its entire life span, it would only present a threat to shipping and aircraft in that part of the world.

Typhoon Goni a significant threat to Taiwan August 19 2015

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InfraredGoni19A

Typhoon Goni is now making an alarming approach towards Taiwan. After reaching a powerful Category 4 storm across open waters, the storm has weakened back to a Category 3 storm. Given its position over waters of 30 to 31 degrees, there is potential for new intensification.

The storm did not reach a Category 5 storm or super typhoon as first suggested but it is still an intense and dangerous storm.

The storm has a well developed eye and a classic spiral shape with well developed storm bands. The storm is currently located 18.7 degrees north and 131.2 degrees east and sustaining intense winds at the core of 100 knots (185 km/h) with stronger gusts to 125 knots (Approximately 231 km/h). The storm has a central pressure of 936 millibars at the core.

This is a fast moving storm moving at 16 knots or nearly 30 km/h.

The CIMSS model attached (Acquired 19 August 2015) is showing the storm approaching the northern Luzon Island of the Philippines. However, if the storm curves north westwards or north north west as suggested, then the storm would give the east side of Taiwan a glancing blow. The model is suggesting the whole of Taiwan under threat of this storm especially within 48 hours.

Much of Taiwan is recovering from the recent Typhoon Soudelor impact and this storm is closing in on the island. It will be interesting to see what occurs. This is a powerful storm capable of causing much havoc similar in nature to what Typhoon Soudelor did earlier this month.

First Atlantic storm for summer – Possible Hurricane August 19 2015

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A cluster of thunderstorms moving very slowly westward across the Atlantic Ocean is beginning to take shape. The cluster of convective storms has slowly been organizing over the past two days around a well developed low pressure cell. Development has been very slow and it is identified that a break in the ridge of high pressure across the region has allowed the cluster to gain some strength.

Currently, the cluster is sustaining winds of 35 knots at the core (Approximately 65 km/h) and is passing over waters of 28 degrees which is warm enough to sustain a future hurricane.

The storm cluster will continue to move west north west from its current position of 10.8 degrees north and 37 degrees west although slowly. Assuming the storm complex sustains its current development, the CIMSS model (Acquired 19 August 2015 and attached) would place the storm at 13.9 degrees north and 44.7 degrees west within 4 days. The model would suggest the first hurricane of the season for summer as a Category 2 storm sustaining winds in excess of 85 knots (Approximately 157 km/h).

The storm currently does not threaten any population centre but its current track would take it close to the Lesser Antilles in coming days. It appears the storm will be named Danny once further development occurs.