Monthly Archives: July 2015

New Pacific Ocean storms 30 and 31 July 2015

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HurricaneGuillermo

GuillermoInfrared

Soudelor

InfraredSoudelor

During the 30 and 31 July, two new Pacific Ocean storms have developed. One has rapidly developed from a tropical depression into a hurricane in the space of 2 days while another storm is still a tropical storm but forecast to intensify into a typhoon within 36 to 48 hours.

It is interesting to note that both storms have developed at the same time but both will take separate courses and have different life spans and strength.

Storm Number 1 - Hurricane Guillermo.

The storm has formed in open ocean south east of Hawaii however the storm does not threaten directly the Hawaii Islands. The storm has rapidly intensified and has formed over waters of 29C. The storm as at 31 July 2015 is currently located 11.2 degrees north and 130 degrees west. It is now a Category 1 Hurricane with winds gusting at 70 knots close to its centre.

If the CIMSS Model is correct, the storm should track over open ocean, intensify into a Category Two Hurricane but weaken in 2 or 3 days time as it passes over cooler waters. It appears at this stage that the storm will have a relatively short life span and not present a significant threat to any population centre.

Storm Number 2 - Tropical Storm Soudelor although it is expected to intensity into a typhoon shortly.

This storm has formed approximately 4,000 km east south east of the Philippines but north west of the Marshall Islands. The CIMSS model suggests that the storm should pass north of Guam but close to the Mariana Islands in coming days.

The CIMSS model suggests a typhoon within 36 hours and a potential dynamic Category 4 Typhoon later during its life span. This storm will pass over waters greater than 31C in coming days which would support a strong typhoon. While currently over open ocean, this storm will eventually approach south east Asia.

Winds are estimated at 40 knots (Tropical storm strength) at the present time but the model is showing substantial intensification in coming days.

The models attached for both storms are acquired on the 31 July 2015 from CIMSS.

Flooding rains and storms India and Bangladesh 30 and 31 July 2015

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Visibleflooding

Falseimagefloods

Flooding

Gangesflooding

A deep monsoon low has brought chaos, flooding rains and storms to parts of eastern India, much of Bangladesh and even areas of Myanmar. The monsoon low in the upper Bay of Bengal has made landfall bringing with it exceptional rainfall for many areas.

The images acquired from NASA 30 and 31 July from MODIS and TERRA satellites tell the storey of the floods. When seen carefully, the flooding can be seen from Earth orbit and it can be seen that the Ganges River has broken its banks. In particular, the first image provided shows a break in the monsoon rains over parts of Bangladesh. The Ganges River is seen as a muddy waterway. Areas to the immediate west of the river is inundated with flood waters from heavy rain this week.

The False Colour image of the same region (TERRA) clearly shows the flooding coloured in blue. A large intense thunderstorm shown on the right continues the deluge for south east Bangladesh.

A satellite pass of the same region 31/7/2015 shows heavy cloud and storms impacting the area with widespread rainfall. A heavy rain alert is currently in force for parts of Bangladesh.

Intense rainfall has been a feature of the region over the past 7 days with some incredible rainfall being reported. For Bangladesh these include:-

Coxs Bazar 810 mm (From 25 to 31 July). This will likely rise as the 31 July progresses. This includes 154 mm on the 25, 116 mm on the 26 and 202 mm on the 27.

Kutubdia - 900 mm (From 25 to 31 July). This will likely rise as the 31 July progresses. This includes 240 mm on the 25, 178 mm on the 26 and 253 mm on the 27.

Teknae - 1,014 mm (From 25 to 31 July). This will likely rise as the 31 July progresses. This includes 131 mm on the 25, 148 mm on the 26, 331 mm on the 27, 63 mm on the 28, 114 mm on the 29, 121 mm on the 30 and 106 mm so far for the 31.

Feni had 185 mm on the 25 July.
Sandwip had 214 mm on the 27 July.

Chittagong has had 100 mm so far for July 31
Rangamati has had 150 mm so far for July 31.
Sitakunda has had 128 mm so far for July 31.

In adjoining India, some rainfall for the 30 July is reasonable from this event.

Note:- Rainfall is tallied in centimeters and not mm so figures are rounded out so some level of inaccuracy is occurring.

Gangetic West Bengal which includes Kolkata.

Manteswar - 20 cm (Approx 200 mm).
Harinkhola 19 cm (Approx 190 mm).
Salar 11 cm (Approx 110 mm).

Kolkata (Dum Dum Airport) had approximately 2 cm or 20 mm.

On a cumulative basis, it is evident that this is a major event and the reason why the flooding can be seen from a passing satellite.

This event will continue for a few more days and hence more flooding is expected especially since heavy rainfall warnings are in force for Dhaka, Khulna, Barisal and Chittagong Divisions (Bangladesh).

Note: Rainfall figures have been sourced directly from the Bangladesh Meteorology Department 31/7/15 and India Meteorological Department 31/7/15.

Heavy rain, storms and flood risk for Kolkata India July 29 – 31 2015

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Monsoon2

Monsoon1

As shown on the satellite images acquired from CIMSS 28/7/2015, a very active monsoon low has developed within the northern part of the Bay of Bengal over the past few days. The low pressure cell is barely moving at the present time. Significant convective activity is occurring just off the coast of Bangladesh, India and Myanmar. Satellite images are showing major thunderstorm and rain activity within this system much of it over open waters.

It is suggested that this low will eventually move onto the Indian land mass resulting in a renewed burst of the monsoon.

Weather forecasters in India are anticipating a major rain event for Bangladesh and parts of India that borders the delta region of the country including Kolkata (Former Calcutta).

Weather forecasts for Kolkata for the next three days anticipates heavy rain including a forecast for drenching rain on Thursday with flooding anticipated and maximum daytime temperatures anywhere between 88F and 83F (28C to 31C). The forecasts even warn residents to be on alert for flooding during heavy rain events.

While not a tropical cyclone, the monsoon outbreak is threatening a flood event for parts of India especially around Kolkata and much of Bangladesh. This event is certainly one to watch for storms and flooding across the Indian Subcontinent.

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