Monthly Archives: June 2015

Storms, rain and floods Mumbai India – June 11 to June 23 2015

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Since the break of the monsoon across much of India, the city of Mumbai has experienced what can only be described as an incredible wet start to the monsoon period.

The average rainfall for Mumbai (India) is usually 23 inches (Approximately 584 mm) according to Accu weather data. However during the period 11 June to 23 June 2015, heavy thunderstorms and rain has produced an incredible 797 mm of rain (Approximately 31 inches) at the city's weather station.

This has led to flooding and local disruption of the city. Generally the monsoon is welcome in a country that requires the rain for its crops such as rice production. Too little rain and too much rain creates issues at either end of the spectrum. The monsoon storms for June 2015 is currently bringing too much rain. As shown, the rainfall for Mumbai for this period is provided on a daily basis (Note - It appears that inches are used to measure rainfall so these have been converted to mm).

June 11 - 0.42 inches (10.66 mm).
June 12 - 4.5 inches (114.3 mm).
June 13 - 0.59 inches (15 mm).
June 14 - 2.13 inches (54 mm).
June 15 - 0.43 inches (11 mm).
June 16 - 0.94 inches (24 mm).
June 17 - 1.23 inches (31.2 mm).
June 18 - 5.31 inches (134 mm).
June 19 - 5.39 inches (136.9 mm).
June 20 - 4.52 inches (114.8 mm).
June 21 - 4.02 inches (102 mm).
June 22 - 0.51 inches (12.9 mm).
June 23 - 1.46 inches (37 mm).

This amounts to 797 mm during the period. The bulk of this being 19.24 inches or 488 mm fell between June 18 and June 21 which is approaching half a metre of rain in 4 days.

The reason has been the tropical storms. The attached satellite photo (Acquired from CIMSS June 24 2015) shows one such storm just north of Mumbai currently impacting Gujarat State and affecting cities such as Bhavragar, Jamnagar and Rajkat. The storms such as this one have produced the intense rains and local flooding. This particular storm being one of many is being monitored but unlikely to develop into any tropical cyclone. This shows an active start to the monsoon across many parts of India following the recent deadly heatwave.

Tropical Storm Kujira expected landfall Vietnam / China 24 June 2015

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The tropical depression in the Gulf of Tonkin east of Vietnam intensified as it tracked northwards towards Hainan Island (China). On the 22 June, this storm was given Tropical Storm status and named Kujira and throughout the 23 June, the intense rainstorm / thunderstorm complex passed over Hainan Island but changed course. The storm appears now to make landfall over the Vietnam / China border.

At peak intensity, this storm had sustained winds of 45 knots but according to the Thai Meteorological Department, the storm appears to be weakening as it makes landfall. Winds close to the centre have eased back to between 65 km/h and 74 km/h.

Tropical Storm warnings are now issued for coastal areas of Vietnam near the city of Hai Phong and rainfall modelling provided by the Thai Meteorological Department is suggesting upwards of 120 mm of rain falling at landfall, capable of bringing flooding.

The model by CIMSS (June 23 2015) is attached which is showing its location at 20.3 degrees north and 108.3 degrees east which is between Hainan Island and landfall over the border of Vietnam with China.

The satellite image RAPID LANCE - MODIS (Acquired from NASA 23/6/2015) is showing the storm clearly. It is a compact storm system but with no eye. It is not a typhoon but embedded thunderstorms are visible within the storm complex. It appears that the main threat is heavy rain and flooding in coastal areas as landfall commences. It is expected that the storm will weaken as it crosses the coast in coming hours.

Tropical Depression, Storms and heavy rain – China 21 to 24 June 2015

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An active low pressure cell off the coast of Vietnam has intensified into a tropical depression over the past 24 hours and is now being watched more closely.

The active low pressure cell is producing heavy rain and thunderstorms and is well supported by warm seas of 30C to 31C. According to the model by CIMSS acquired 21 June 2015, this storm should track northwards towards Hainan Island (China) and Guangdong Provence (Southern China). According to the model, this storm is expected to make landfall in approximately 3 days potentially passing over or near the cities of Haikou, Wuchuan, Zhanjiang and other centres across that region.

The tropical depression is currently located at Latitude 15.4 degrees north and 111.4 degrees east. A typhoon is not suggested but wind speeds are forecast to reach 45 knots at its centre as it traverses north.

The National Centre for Hydro Meteorological (Based in Vietnam) is tracking the tropical depression along its coastline and a Forecasting Numerical Model Prediction produced by the meteorological department is suggesting the following rainfall at 6 hour intervals from the storm:-

12 hours - Maximum rainfall of 30 to 40 mm.
18 hours - Maximum rainfall of 30 to 40 mm.
24 hours - Maximum rainfall of 30 to 40 mm.
30 hours - Maximum rainfall of 40 mm.
36 hours - Maximum rainfall of 40 mm.
42 hours - Maximum rainfall of 40 mm.
48 hours - Maximum rainfall of 40 mm.
54 hours - Maximum rainfall of 20 to 30 mm.
60 hours - Maximum rainfall of 40 mm.

As the storm reaches Hainan Island, the forecast model is suggesting much heavier rainfall of 60 mm for the 6 hour period to 66 hours then dropping back to 40 mm as it makes landfall by 72 hours.

Another model (GFS) is suggesting daily rainfall totals at any location in its path of 50 mm to 100 mm with maybe 150 mm for Tuesday.

Much of the rainfall is suggested to remain out to sea until it approaches the southern coastline of China (Hainan Island).

The GFS is also suggesting large monsoonal type rainfall for Vietnam for Monday and Wednesday of 20 to 40 mm (Monday) and up to 100 mm per day for Tuesday and Wednesday for Central Vietnam as the storm traverses northwards towards the Chinese southern coastline.

The model acquired by CIMSS is attached showing its predicted movement over the next 3 days.