Daily Archives: June 10, 2015

Possible inland Eastern Australia rain event 14 to 17 June 2015

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Longer range weather forecast models are suggesting some form of a rain event across Queensland, New South Wales and northern Victoria for the period 14 to 17 June 2015. Models are still inaccurate to the timing and amounts but indications are, much of the inland assuming the event unfolds would receive some useful rainfall totals.

The attached model from Weatherzone (GFS dated 10 June 2015) suggests the best falls to occur across the inland and outback Queensland, northern inland New South Wales and far south west New South Wales with many other centres receiving at least 15 to 30 mm. As suggested by the attached model (GFS), places like Mildura and Swan Hill (NW Victoria) and Armidale, Inverell and Moree (Northern New South Wales) would be receiving upwards of 50 mm. The attached model even suggests that an area across the inland southern Queensland could receive falls upwards of 100 mm.

Another model by the Bureau of Meteorology is suggesting a rain event towards the latter part of the period with much of New South Wales receiving at least 15 to 25 mm with higher totals across the inland south west slopes of the state.

Whatever occurs, such a widespread event would be useful. Given that an El Nino event has unfolded which can seriously reduce rainfall across eastern Australia, such an event would be beneficial for the cropping lands of the state as this would greatly assist farmers and provide much needed water where it is needed most.

New tropical storm threat off Mexico – June 10 2015

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With the demise of Tropical Hurricane Blanca that dropped between 75 and 150 mm of rain across areas of Baja California, a new tropical threat now lies south of Mexico.

Satellite imagery is identifying what appears to be the birth of the next storm which over the past 24 hours has intensified. This storm which is beginning to approach the thresh hold of a tropical depression would if it continues be named "Carlos". If this develops further, it would be given Hurricane status.

According to observations, wind speeds close to the centre have already increased to 25 knots as the storm takes shape.

This storm is posing a threat to the southern coast of Mexico. Accurate forecast models are not available but there is suggestion that it could enter the Gulf of Tehuantepec and threaten coastal cities such as Acapulco and Salina Cruz and others within vicinity of the storm.

The storm is visible using satellite imagery from CIMSS. In addition, the structure of the storm is clearly identified in the infra red image attached (CIMSS - 9 June 2015).

This storm is continuing a very busy start to the hurricane season in this part of the Pacific Ocean. Part of the reason as shown in the attached sea surface temperature plot (CIMSS) model is that sea temperatures are in the range of 29C to 30C off the southern coast of Mexico which is fueling the hurricanes and tropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are slightly above average within this region and conditions are favourable to sustain the storms. This storm would have some movement north west should it develop further but models are not yet available to determine what it is likely to do.