Storm Potential for central NSW 29th November 2011

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Update: Michael Thompson posted this image of a explosive dryline supercell from the 29th November 2011 event:
Explosive dryline supercell

Given the strong instability and generally decent turning profile, there is the likelihood of severe storms over central NSW this afternoon and evening. CAPE values show the atmosphere is more than sufficient for hailstorms with very warm humid air and sufficient cool temperatures aloft. I would not be surprised if there are a few supercells today if storms can remain isolated. Given the capping particularly to the west, isolated storms are a decent chance.

I guess we shall see what happens.

By the way, I would again like to mention that the GFS is being contaminated by data and over estimating moisture in the Riverina – I would only anticipate higher based storms in this region.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

 

17 Responses to “Storm Potential for central NSW 29th November 2011”

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  1. 1
    Weather Freak Says:

    Very nice :) got Severe Thunderstorms here in Wodonga Victoria late this afternoon and Evening never seen ones like them before :) Got some great videos out of it which i have since posted to YouTube :) Thanks for the notice its great knowing about these things :)

    (night time)

    (late Afternoon)

  2. 2
    Nick Moir Says:

    shot of a right mover from goulburn , about 8pm. it formed around Golspie and headed SSE

    [img]http://www.extremestorms.com.au/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/NAM_0028.jpg[/img]

  3. 3
    Ben Says:

    Certainly has been an incredible outbreak so far. Apparently amazing lightning displays in across the southern tablelands and coast, a potential LP Supercell near Bathurst, and a supercell in the Forbes and Parkes area with cricket ball size hail. I was lazy after having no sleep and sitting a long exam and didn’t head out yesterday as I didn’t want to drive more than a couple of hours, certainly paid the price there. Today I work, otherwise I’d have been in the Hunter, where there is quite a nice line in the Port Stephens area. Hopefully Sydney can do something.

  4. 4
    Jimmy Deguara Says:

    Ben,

    Have you seen any pictures of the cricket ball sized hail? Storms along the dry line would have been rather high based and motoring along at some speed.

    The lightning show was simply incredible and very persistent!

    Nice LP structure Nick! Certainly quite a few right moving LPs on this day! Interesting to consider the hodographs favouring right movers!

    Regards,

    Jimmy Deguara

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