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November 5th, 2011 at 10:06 am
The Queensland ridge looks set to block for another week – good time a family holiday there. For my region, an upper trough may just clip NE NSW during Monday. GFS has convective type precip most afternoons though shear will be poor. Looking good for some central NSW storms next several days.
November 5th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
Definately looks good but surface moisture may end up being a negtive factor but if it isn’t then this could be a significant event. So far I have seen GFS plot as much as -9.5 Lifted Index with 3500 CAPE next week with good turning windsheer so there is obviously plenty of potential. To be honest I haven’t been this excited about an inland storm chase since some of us encountered strong supercells over 2 days in December 2005 around Nyngan.
November 5th, 2011 at 4:22 pm
Hi Jeff,
Given the relatively warmer upper level temperatures, moisture is critical in calculating CAPE values. The values predicted from memory by GFS is 20.5 dew points. Bring it down to say 16 dew points brings the CAPE on the same sounding profile to just under 1000 CAPE value. So let’s say it is somewhere in between.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
November 5th, 2011 at 6:24 pm
Hi Jimmy,The Access model for next wednesday is predicting dewpoints in the target area of between 18 ad 20 so if it is correct CAPE values should be high.Jeff.