Daily Archives: March 19, 2011

Re: Eastern NSW Severe storms / supercells 16-17 March 2011

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Pintang,

I know I have said this another time but definitely this time do not feel bad about your decision. In hindsight it is easy to suggest otherwise!

To tell you the truth, most people would not have taken the day off to chase. You guessed it the southerly was the negative feature - imagine spending a tank of fuel on outflow dominant crap. Had the target been further north, I would not have even chased. For you that distance suggested a bust would have been hurtful. The storm structures really surprised me particularly the inflow etc. There was nothing in the models that suggested to me the type of cells that occurred was to occur.

And then the day after with Ben - why would someone chase with a model suggesting 800 CAPE - I know adjusted values would have suggested otherwise. (I could have chased on this day as well but I had work to do and the risk was there as well). Even with modest instability you could have storms tracking boundaries which I suspect was occuring with the one tracking the coast.

Interesting couple of days nevetheless and given the accuracy of the models these days, surprises are rare!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara 

Re: Eastern NSW Severe storms / supercells 16-17 March 2011

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Thanks for the photos and reports Jimmy and Ben.

Im quite irrited now,  On Wednesday morning I was VERY close to taking a sickie to chase the Upper Hunter. I'm always interested in chasing on a workday when theres shear about and the potential for supercells. The severe storm the previous day near Bombala also increased my interest. The Broke/ Singleton area was the general plan. Unfortunately I made a last minute decision to go to work, I thought the Southerlys could ruin it with the models showing an estabilised southerly pushing into the Hunter before mid day.  As it turned out, the Southerly didn't reach the Upper Hunter until 4-5pm and it actually helped trigger storms further south along the Southern Tablelands.

Whilst at work I knew I made the wrong decision .Just before the S'ly (8:30am) I had a brief look outside and the sky looked very untsable.Heaps of accas about,and lots of lovely blue sky.

Work finished at 2:30pm. I could finially chase but the souttherly was fully established in Nowra was thick stratocumulus. I was suprised to see decent storms on the radar to my SW( I couldn't see them due to the scud)

I chased to the Southern Highlands and attempted to intercept the Goulburn/ Marulan severe storm. Unfortunately it moved into no-mans land,and I only got distant glimpses of the structure. It looked quite organised with the heavy precip curtain seperated from the very low RFB, and bolts were regulary occuring just ahead of the precipin a tight area. Unfortunately this was occuring 20kms from me. Inflow was moving quickly into the storm, but this was very cool air. The storm slowly died as a result.

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